The status of the Shipping Market

The ship’s revenue dropped to unprecedented levels in the global market in the year 2016, reaching $7,364 per day in August. Over the past thirty years, this drop in incomes in the industry has been unprecedented and it can be said with certainty that it has been the lowest level of income of ships during this period. In the year 2016 and 2017, the average ship’s revenue never returned to this low level and generally always improved. The daily incomes of ships in the industry at an average during the whole 2017 were $10,742 which shows %12.6 up from levels in 2016. In December 2017, the average daily income of ships reached $12,662, which represents an increase of %11 compared to the same period in 2016. Although it seems that the shipping industry’s revenues are recovering, it should be kept in mind that the average levels of ship revenue throughout the year 2017 and on the last month were still 31% and 19% respectively below the daily average income of the ships in the last 25 years. International statistics show that the growth in maritime transportation will increase by an average of 1% annually until 030. Of course, this growth rate will be much higher in the bulk sector. Even the bulk market is expected to grow up to 6000 million tons by 2030. Most of this growth is due to imports of China and India and most of the commodities are coal and iron ore. Such growth in the bulk sector will be expected for other countries by 2035. As a fact, the highest rates of the shipping sectors are expected for the dry bulk market. In the container segment too it is the same situation. The forecast is that by the year 2035 the container trade will have growth of about 3.1 billion tons.“The economic growth trend in developing countries reflects the ongoing shift in investment, production and trade in these countries. The 20% increase in global economic growth in 2017 has led to the maintenance and growth of the shipping industry in spite of all the destructive trends in this industry. Although projections indicate that the economic growth rate in 2018 will not change significantly compared to 2017, maintaining this growth rate by eliminating or reducing the impact of destructive trends in the shipping industry will lead to the retention and development of the markets of this industry.

The demand for Logistics and warehousing space outstrips Supply.

Structural reforms including the awarding of infrastructure status and the implementation of Goods and Services Act have bolstered the demand for logistics and warehousing space in the country. As a result, demand has outstripped the supply of Indian Logistics and Warehousing.

January-March period of 2019 has witnessed 8.4 mnsqft of absorption

• Structural reforms and implementation of GST have bolstered demand for logistics and warehousing space

• 56% of the total 32 mnsqft of industrial and logistics leases in 2018 were in Grade A spaces

• Indian logistics and warehousing industry is expected to grow by 2020

The annual demand of around 32 mnsqft has outstripped the supply of 31 mnsqft witnessed for the first time in the last four years. With January-March period of 2019 already witnessing 8.4 mnsqft. of absorption, it is expected to clock approx. 38 mnsqft by end of 2019. With high demand, lease transactions have remained high so far, it added. Alongside the rise in transactions, the share of Grade A spaces leases have also gone up in the past four years. Of the total 32 mnsqft of industrial and logistics leases in 2018, 56% were concluded in Grade A spaces. Sectors such as 3PL/logistics, engineering, auto & ancillary, e-commerce, FMCG, retail and telecom & white goods have remained the biggest demand drivers. As a result of the high demand, the logistics sector is expected to grow to US$ 215 bn by 2020. The infrastructure status has added strength to the development pace. GST implementation has brought in a uniform tax regime and has removed the challenges relating to the logistics supply chain, making it easier for operators in the space to expand across geographies. There is huge potential in the logistics and warehousing sector. With the high demand for high-quality logistics facilities and increasing market maturity, space is set to grow from this stage. However, the development side continues to witness challenges on account of problems such as land aggregation, tax parity etc. As per reports, we will witness the easing of these challenges with further reforms. The logistics sector, as a result of these developments, has witnessed a regular upward trend in average rents in the past three years and the trend is expected to continue in coming years. The liquidity infused by global investors is prompting the market to move towards organized and globally accepted warehousing space — Grade A/globally accepted warehousing space has more than 50% savings on rent per pallet position over Grade B spaces. While in operation, in the future we will see mechanised and automated material handling facilities. These will bring in the much-needed efficiency enhancement leading to as much as reduction of up to 30 per cent in logistics cost. In a well-maintained warehousing facility, technology and planning of maintenance can optimise Common Area Maintenance charges significantly.

Increased Profitability – Post-GST

Goods and Services Tax (GST) has been envisaged to resolve the erstwhile pre-GST pain points and streamline the supply chain. Most companies are deliberating the need to redesign their after-produce supply chain networks. The biggest advantage which supply chain experts attribute to the implementation of GST is the reduction in inventory. The savings due to the reduction in overall inventory levels are expected to far exceed savings in real estate costs on account of consolidation of warehouses. Companies are constantly striving to optimise profitability by stretching margins, strengthening brand equity and expanding their product portfolios. While these factors are focused on the customer; on the manufacturers’ side, reengineering internal processes to minimise costs is a major factor that not only maximises capital productivity but also dictates the organisation’s survival in today’s competitive environment. Inventory carrying cost is one of the primary metrics which is used to gauge supply chain productivity because it is a measure of how much capital is lying idle in resources that could otherwise be employed for other productive uses. Thus, it is the primary aim of any supply chain manager to minimise the company’s inventory carrying cost without compromising on sales. Companies carry inventory to support business cycles. Inventories help manage the variability of customer demand, the variability of lead times and also forecasting inaccuracies. The level of inventory being carried is linked to the desired Service Level of the company, which in turn balances the companies’ cost of understocking to that of over-stocking. The companies would now be able to maintain pre-GST Service Levels through lower inventory levels on account of faster movement of goods and higher efficiency at the warehouse level, thereby, reducing the overall firm level inventory. The inventory carrying cost is the most significant consideration for the planning of the supply chain for any organisation. The opportunity cost associated with the value of the average inventory being carried by the organisation is one of the major components of the inventory carrying the cost. Organisations look at higher returns through higher inventory turnover and reduction in the average inventory value. Post GST with the removal of interstate checkpoints, reduction in cargo movement time and replacement of multiple state and central level taxes; there is a strong case for consolidation of warehouses. Warehouse consolidation results in averaging out of variability in individual demand and lead time (of individual warehouses), resulting in lowering of risk pertaining to aggregate demand variability. In fact, the average inventory level is directly proportional to the risk of demand variability and hence a lower risk would require a lower inventory level. Warehouse consolidation cases have witnessed up to 30% reduction in inventory levels leading to over 40% increase in inventory turnover thereby leading to increased profitability.

Technology and Shipping

Time-Based competition is intensifying. Delays caused to the ship and its cargo cost a lot to everyone in the supply chain. The inventive use of information technology (IT) will create a benefit equivalent to that of containerization Information technology, especially Internet-based systems, are increasingly being employed in all transport services. As shoppers become more attuned to Maximum usage of sophisticated supply chain management may cause the ports to face both opportunities and threats. IT has brought about a change in the outlook of the ship owners thus making them valued-added logistics service providers. Increased usage of electronics will increase the demand for shipping services by increasing trade volume in general. Most of the Shipbrokers and other intermediaries become a part of the changes, by submitting one-stop freight services, includes providing ocean carriages, port handling, storage, insurance and inland transportation. Ship owners and their suppliers also may soon use the Internet for innovative ideas such as bunker auctions, ship inspections using electronically transmitted data and Internet-based classification society records. The leading area for shipping-related information technology is in ports, especially in terminal operating systems and intra-port communications. A data communication system can handle customs filings, transmittal of manifests, and processing of bills of lading and other documents. The growing use of information processing has brought about a change in the shipping and port industry. The use of e-commerce in ports will increase the efficiency of international trade. Ports are of crucial importance to many countries, as they constitute a critical node in the transport chain linking international transport assistance with regional transport services. The introduction of IT in cargo booking, tracking, clearance and delivery by major shipping lines, as well as in customs clearance, all ports must have to become efficient interfaces for shipping services in a world that are connected with logistics chains. With more changes in the trade arrangements between countries, world trade is expected to continue its rapid growth, thus making the world’s economies more and more interdependent. It is a known fact that ports play a critical role in their countries’ trade growth. There has been a change in the number of ports that have taken steps to improve the quality of their customs services and to give primary transport and communications infrastructure in order to receive the benefits of e-commerce. Information technology, especially Internet-based systems, can be used effectively to
streamline and enhance supply chain processes, enhance cooperation between carriers and customers by providing instant communications, and remove any kind of procedures and regulations. A variety of strategies and policies have been implemented by several countries to develop their information infrastructures. The information systems at the port have now become integrated logistics information systems through interconnected works with other logistics-related information systems.

The Shipping Industry

The shipping industry has been achieving spectacular growth in container trade, along with the globalization process and large-scale adoption of the container. Worldwide containers throughput increased from 36 million in 1980 and 88 million in 1990 to about 535 million in 2008. Around 60% of the world’s port involves laden containers, about 15% are empty containers. The remainder consists of transshipped containers. Sea-sea transhipment shows the strongest growth: it has more than tripled in the last 15 years World container traffic, the absolute number of containers being carried by sea, has grown from 28.7 million TEU in 1990 to 152 million TEU in 2008- an average annual increase of 9.5%. The ratio of the container traffic over evolved from 3 in 1990 to around 3.5 in 2008; i.e., a container on average is handled (loaded or discharged) 3.5 times between the first port and the last port of discharge. The changing liner service networks are at the core of the rise in the average number of port handlings per box. Apart from the year 2009 when there was a decline in world container traffic of about 12% to 478 million TEU, the container shipping business has always witnessed moderate-to-strong year-on-year growth figures. The pace of growth even accelerated in the period 2002- 8, partly as a result of the “China effect” in the world economy. The absolute rise of container traffic is the result of the interplay of economic, policy-oriented and technological factors. World trade was facilitated through the mitigation of trade barriers and the introduction of market liberalization and deregulation. Market liberalization brought about a lot of development in logistics throughout the world. The centre of gravity of the container business is shifting to Asia. During the last twenty years, the transatlantic container trade has gradually lost its dominance to the transpacific and Europe-Far East trades, with large volumes moving from Asia to North America and Europe. The container ports in East Asia handled 19.8% of the global container throughput in 1980. In 2008, their share had increased to about 37%. Ports in Southeast Asia saw a steep rise in their joint market share, from 4.8% in 1980 to around 14% in 2008. In contrast, Western Europe saw its share fall from 30.3% (then the highest in the world) to about 18% in the same period. North America also witnessed its share declining, from 24.5% (then the second-highest in the world) to less than 10%. The dominance of Asia is well understood in the world container port rankings. In 2009 most of the container ports came from Asia, mainly from China. In the mid1980s there were only six Asian ports in the top twenty, mainly Japanese load centres. The best container ports represented 46% of the worlds container ports in 2009, the top five an elevated 21.3%. The share of gateway traffic in total container throughput tends to differ quite significantly between the gateway regions. Certain regions primarily function as a hub, not as a gateway, whereas the seaport system which is a true multi-port gateway region, gives access to vast service areas in the Delta. Moreover, some multi-port gateway regions feature a high density of port terminals in a small geographical space, while other regions cover larger areas with interpreting distances of up to 350km. The major container-handling region in the world until the early 1990s was in the Europian region. From that moment on Asia took over the leadership. One out of every ten containers handled worldwide is handled in ports of the Pearl River Delta. The joint cargo throughput of the ten port.

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